TOMORROW IT BEGINS
Tomorrow it begins! The Republicans, having won a slim majority in the House, are going to try to get down to business. Until now the newly elected members have probably devoted most of their time to getting their offices organized. They are given funding to organize their individual staffs. Many have never had a staff before. Creating one that works would be a challenge by itself.
Tomorrow at noon there must be a vote to elect a new Speaker. The redoubtable Nancy Pelosi is still in Congress as a vibrant eighty two year old member but she has chosen to pass the leadership on to Hakeem Jeffries of New York. The ball in the House is in the Republican court anyway. They now have a very slim majority. That majority, however, is so divided and so corrupted politically that they can hardly agree to elect anyone. A failure to elect Kevin McCarthy or someone else would demonstrate how dysfunctional the Republicans have become. The last time no one was elected on the first ballot was exactly one hundred years ago in 1923. In that case it ended up taking twelve ballots to determine a winner,
The selection of a new Speaker is particularly difficult because it is one of the few leadership positions for which members of both parties vote. That means that if five or more Republicans do not vote for Kevin McCarthy of California, he can’t win. The Democrats did lose their majority in the current Congress but not by much. None of those people is going to vote for the office hungry McCarthy on the first ballot. He has to win with Republicans.
The ultimate political nightmare for the Congressional Republicans is to find that their intransigence with each other has left them with a Democratic Speaker voted for by moderate members of their own party along with the Democrats. It might not take very many disgusted traditional Republicans to allow that to happen. Still, although that would make entertaining history and be fun to watch, it is unlikely to really happen.
Instead, if McCarthy loses that first vote, we are going to see Republican alternatives emerging from the Capitol’s hidden alcoves. People who are elected to Congress don’t do it by being blushing violets. These are people who gained office in high school, then in college and never really stopped running. Having your own large office in the Capitol with a working fireplace, a large staff, and all that authority is difficult to turn down.
The most logical alternative would be found among veteran Republicans already in the leadership. One obvious choice would be Steve Scalise. Scalise is nationally well known partly because he was severely wounded by a shooter while attending a Congressional ball game several years ago. He has recovered and like many others would have difficulty turning down a chance at the Speakership.
Another possibility already in the leadership is the youthful Elise Stefanik, who sprang into Congress from a rural district outside New York City. She is notoriously ambitious, having been one of Donald Trump’s sharpest critics before and during his election campaign of 1916. Then, realizing that her way upward was lost, she went through a complete metamorphosis to become one of the greatest Trump disciples of them all. Stefanik is no George Santos, who is clearly a complete fraud (his challenge will be staying in!), but the agonizing Republicans will go through because they are letting him in (they need his vote) will make a changeling like Stefanik have more difficulty gaining support.
So, we must wait and see what happens. The Democrats have the Senate and the White House for the next two years. The choice of Speaker is a Republican problem. The way the House rules of procedure are set up there is no way that much else can be done without the Speaker having been chosen. None of all those committees have official members. The would-be Chairmen cannot be officially chosen. Everything waits on the successful choice of a Speaker.
Prepare to enjoy the show!!!!
H.J. Rishel
1/02/2013
