THE SPEAKERSHIP: WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN NOW!
It is Wednesday afternoon January fourth and the House has just held its sixth vote to elect a new speaker. The results have been consistent. Kevin McCarthy of California, who, during the last ten years has openly sought the office, has after the last vote almost exactly the amount of votes that he had when the voting began.
And, the opposition is consistent too. McCarthy has one hundred and one votes, seventeen short of the two hundred and eighteen required to win. The Speaker of the House is voted in by members of both parties. The Democrats are running their new leader, Hakeem Jeffries, chosen with the blessing of the redoubtable Nancy Pelosi. Jeffries has won every round so far with two hundred and twelve votes.
That means that every Democrat is united behind Jeffries. His problem is that every Democratic vote is not enough. It is six short of the required two hundred and eighteen. Because there are not six Republicans likely to vote for Democrat Jeffries, his votes primarily demonstrate the unity of the Democratic opposition. Six more votes are a bridge too far! That result must still be aggravating to the long suffering McCarthy.
The Republican members are currently meeting separately (and secretly) before the voting begins again this evening to try and think of a way out of their current dilemma. The twenty far-right members who have refused to vote for Kevin McCarthy certainly
understand that their actions weaken the Republican Party’s ability to continue the government’s functioning. That hardly bothers them. That is what they want. Success to them means destroying the government’s ability to keep functioning as it has. From their point of view if McCarthy fails, they win.
So, even if McCarthy is replaced by the next most likely candidate, Steve Scalise, the far right gang of twenty still win. There will be nothing that he or anyone else could offer them that would change their world view. And, with the Republican plurality so small the more moderate members who are actually interested in real things will be powerless without them.
The truth is that any Republican named Speaker is going to have the same problem. Even if they were to choose the leader of this far-right bloc, Jim Jordon of Ohio, he would be powerless too because the real majority of moderate Republicans simply will not commit political suicide in order to satisfy a group of people most of them view is outdated political nuts.
So what is the answer? If wiser heads could prevail, the answer would be for the majority of moderate Republican members to form a coalition with the Democratic minority, remember that the Democrats are a really big minority, in order to get things done. Then the Gang of Twenty would become instantly powerless. They could continue to do the performing that they do to entertain their voters back home but they would not be able to stop the House from really functioning. Forming such an alliance is really the way out of their dilemma but no Republican is going to do that tonight. It would have to come later.
At first, given the amount of anger and distrust between the parties, working together in this way will seem impossible. But, as the political Pied Piper of Mar-A-Lago fades, an older more co-operative political atmosphere may be on the horizon. That is particularly true because Joe Biden’s whole approach to doing real things with both parties participating is being increasingly a recognized success. Traditional Republicans across the country would certainly be supportive of representatives who are finally actually functioning.
Something is clearly needed to get away from the deadlock in the House. There are other alternatives but one with a simple Republican alternative to Kevin McCarthy is not one of them. If that should happen we can prepare for a kind of permanent civil war in the House of Representatives until the two thousand and twenty four election. Until then an alliance between the parties in the House would be the best possible outcome. It would be real democracy in action!
H.J. Rishel
1/04/2023
