DONALD TRUMP: PICKING THE WRONG MAN
The trajectory of the Trump administration and its legislative program are increasingly clear. President Trump is desperately going to try to hold on and to remain in office (it is not really a question of reelection in 2020). His legislative program is clearly going to fail. The great trillion dollar infrastructure program has receded into the distance (along with the Great Wall of Mexico). It’s clear that even completing a budget is a long shot. There is going to be no tax reform. And, the possible inability to raise the congressional debt limit means that the country at the end of September may find itself facing a genuine crisis. In the meantime, Trump finds himself spending a great deal of time resisting criticism of the KKK, and mourning the passing of post Civil War Confederate statues. With almost three and a half years to go, the future for this administration is grim.
If the Founding Fathers at that great Constitutional Convention of 1787 could come back, they would not recognize the government that they tried to create. They assumed that the House and the Senate would decide almost everything. The President would be a ceremonial leader of the country but he would also be a kind of “glorified clerk” who, “would see that the laws were faithfully executed”. What has happened over time is that the real driving force in this government has become the president. The presidency now includes its own large bureaucracy and much of the important legislation and the bills that make up the budget come from that bureaucracy. They are sent over to the Congress already written. The House and Senate can produce their own bills but they now usually spend their time accepting, rejecting or modifying bills sent over to them.
This assumes that real legislation to enact real programs is being created. It assumes that a Chief Executive who understands real detail is overseeing the creation of real programs. Now, in August, it is clear that that is not happening. The reason why is pretty clear. With this election the voters hired a business man and television star with no previous experience in government. Donald Trump had not expected to win (he probably never really wanted to). But, with a combination of the “working class” people who attended those rallies and the votes of “cultural Republicans” who would vote for anyone labeled Republican, Trump was able to get just enough electoral votes to win. Who had those people really elected? Set aside, if you can, all of the glitter that Trump has created over the years to improve his brand. Consider just the man. You have a seventy one year old rich guy who knows almost nothing about the government at all. During those famous rallies, he really had to attack Hillary Clinton, and illegal immigrants, and to talk about his famous wall because he didn’t really know enough about the government to talk about it.
In his previous life, the very energetic Donald Trump had created a world which fit his personality. He was close only to his immediate family so they all worked for his company. He was able to build huge grandiose projects with borrowed money. When things did not go well, as with his casinos, he used bankruptcy so that his lenders took the losses. He faced suits in the thousands because he refused to pay contractors but he had lawyers to clean up the messes. He “wrote books” which others actually wrote under contract. With his high powered personality he became a television star but everything was scripted. He was told who to fire! Most of the real detail work in everything he did was always done by others. Things worked well during his presidential campaign because he didn’t really have a traditional campaign. He flew out in his big jet and worked crowds that were gathered for him. He was really good at working them into a frenzy. Then he would fly back to New York.
So, once in office, Donald Trump had two options. He could have left behind his previous life and have settled down and really attempted to learn all the detail he would need to be effective (When Ronald Reagan came in, he was staying up till after midnight every night trying to read documents. His wife had to angrily demand that his aids reduce his reading load.). He could have worked on all the appointments that a President has to make. He could have spent some time thinking through how to help create all those jobs he had promised at his rallies. Or, he could once more not really bother to learn and, as he had before, leave the details to others. He could sit at a desk in front of TV cameras, look presidential, and sign things. He could once more surround himself with his family and lead a kind of fantasy version of the life he had had before.
Perhaps for Donald Trump, the first alternative was never really an option. He has clearly tried to recreate his old life. And, it hasn’t worked. It hasn’t worked because Donald Trump simply does not know enough to create and to maneuver a program through the Congress. And, given his very limited attention span and his singular need to keep interest centered on himself, he is not going to do that. Over in the Capitol, the House and the Senate Republican majorities are too divided to come up with anything that could gain enough votes to pass. They won’t contribute. The administration can still make some changes by gutting previously created regulations, but that is about it.
The Founders didn’t assume that the President would drive the system but that is the way it has worked out. In 2016, the voters, many simply voicing anger, chose a man for that job who was unfitted and unprepared. The result was and is predictable. Donald Trump will still have many supporters. The President’s many dedicated fans are going to be loathe to admit that they made a mistake (Future voters might want to think about whether the candidates they hire are really qualified or just make them feel good!). The people at those rallies wanted some things that were really needed. They wanted to shake up the establishment and make the government more responsive to them. They just picked the wrong candidate. So, the administration will continue to flounder. Damage will be done, but we will somehow blunder through. We have no choice!
H.J. Rishel
8/21/2017
