ARIZONA, MAINE, AND THE TRUMP EFFECT

Donald Trump managed to pull off the Surprise of the Century in 2016 (he lost the popular vote but managed to eke out a victory through the electoral vote). If the past is any predictor he will not be able to do that again. It certainly appears that given his current approval ratings and his administration’s failure to perform that Donald Trump will be defeated, perhaps by a wide margin. The House is firmly in the hands of the Democrats. If anything their margin will increase.

So, that leaves the Senate. The Senate has 100 members, two per state. In the current Congress, the Senate has 53 members who vote reliably Republican and 47 who vote reliably Democratic. So, if the Republicans were to lose only three members the vote would be tied. In the case of ties in the Senate the Vice-President steps in and, as the President of the Senate, breaks the tie. If Donald Trump does lose, the new President and his Vice-President will both be Democrats.

Republicans in the Senate are not stupid (weak maybe, but not stupid). They know that Donald Trump faces an uphill battle to win. They also know that in November, some Senate candidates will face challenges peculiar to this election because the President seems concerned with only one small portion of the population. Call it the Trump Effect.

At the beginning of the primary season vulnerable Republican Senate candidates faced a dilemma. Should they stand with Donald Trump and hope that the members of his base can pull them through? If they did that, they could alienate suburban voters by mouthing nonsense that neither they nor the suburbanites could take seriously.

Or, could they try to cleverly support Trump enough to win the rally goers and still win the votes of more traditional Republicans and independents. If they tried that they risked the wrath of the Great Twitterer and his watchful supporters. Any sign of disloyalty to the White House could produce a more Trumpian rival and force them to spend money and time competing in a primary.

A great deal of the campaign strategy a vulnerable Senator will take will depend on his/her state. Think about Susan Collins, the veteran Republican Senator from Maine. Among moderate Republicans even Mitch McConnell was outloathed by Susan Collins. Trapped as one of the last moderate Republicans in the Northeast, she allowed herself to be pressured into supporting the program of the unpopular (in Maine) Donald Trump. Now opposed by a fresh-faced young Democrat with a great political name, Sara Gideon, Susan Collins must campaign as an independent voice but she is trapped. Her hope for reelection seems doomed.

In sunny Arizona, things are even more convoluted. A little complicated history: Two years ago, the Senate icon John McCain succumbed to brain cancer. The Republican governor, Doug Ducey, then appointed John Kyl a retired senator who served briefly and then resigned. Ducey had an obvious replacement: Martha McSally had already run for the Senate in 2018 against Arizona Democrat Krysten Sinema to replace the other Arizona Senator, retiring Republican, Jeff Flake. McSally had come very close to defeating Sinema but had lost.

Martha McSally, who retired as the first female Navy fighter pilot (both parties love fighter pilots) had virtually tied Sinema. She was still available and Ducey appointed her to replace Kyl, but, she was appointed only until the 2020 election. To capture the final two years of McCain’s term she must now run again.

An interesting thing happened to Martha McSally on the way to this election. The former high powered jet pilot was drawn into the orbit of Planet Trump. Having begun as an independent rather progressive sounding Republican she moved rapidly to the right. The bright Senate prospect found herself more and more supporting Trump. And, Trump traveled to Arizona with her in Air Force One to show his support.

In the meantime, the Democratic primary was won by Mark Kelly, the astronaut. Kelly is the husband of former Congresswoman, Gabby Giffords, who was shot and severely wounded in an assassination attempt in January of 2012. Kelly, famous for his own space exploits and an object of public sympathy because of his popular wife’s tragic injury, is consistently running ahead in the polls. McSally’s low poll performance may also demonstrate that as Donald Trump slowly sinks in the West those who bet on his drawing power may be pulled down too.

Senatorial candidates who seem most likely to be helped by Trump are in the South and the West. It is also there that the pandemic is hitting with unusual ferocity. Trump’s hope for a quick economic recovery is simply not going to happen. Trump, proceeding with eyes wide shut, seems determined to wish the pandemic away. The candidates he is attempting to help may in fact be harmed. That may turn out to be the Trump Effect.

For Donald Trump his rally-going base is his only hope in November. For Senate Republican candidates those people are a political nightmare. In a normal year the base might be able, particularly in the South and the West, to help push Republican candidates over the top. With the President’s popularity sinking, particularly in suburbs, the rally going base may not be large enough to pull Trump inspired candidates to victory (McSally). That same base could cause more moderate Republicans to lose (Collins).

So, Trump’s campaigning only to that small base may end up hurting both Republican candidates identified with him and those more moderate. That may mean the loss of his party’s last federal stronghold. The current Republican Senate may pass into history!

H.J. Rishel

7/12/2020